Welcome to the first edition of Orbital Watch. Your quick roundup of significant news on space debris in low Earth orbit (LEO). January brought fresh warnings about growing risks, economic impacts, innovative tracking methods, and proactive steps by operators.

Here's a brief overview:

LEO on the Brink: Just Days from Potential Disaster

A new study introduced the "CRASH Clock" metric, revealing that if satellites lost maneuvering control (e.g., due to a solar storm), a catastrophic collision could occur in as little as 2.8–5.5 days based on mid-2025 data—down dramatically from 121 days in 2018. This highlights how mega-constellations have made LEO far more fragile, raising fears of rapid onset toward Kessler syndrome cascades.

Economic Wake-Up Call from World Economic Forum

The WEF, in collaboration with the Centre for Space Futures, released a major report projecting that unchecked debris congestion could cost the space industry $25.8–$42.3 billion over the next decade (2025–2035). Even without major incidents, this acts as a "hidden tax" on operations, urging global action on regulation, removal tech, and collaboration.

New Way to Track Falling Debris

Researchers from Johns Hopkins University and partners developed a method using existing earthquake seismometer networks to detect sonic booms from reentering debris. Tested on events like China's Shenzhou-15 module, it provides near real-time trajectory tracking, helping predict landing zones and improve safety as uncontrolled reentries become more frequent.

SpaceX Takes Action on Starlink Orbits

SpaceX announced plans to lower about 4,400 Starlink satellites from ~550 km to ~480 km throughout 2026. This move reduces orbital lifetime (faster deorbit on failure or end of life), limits debris exposure, and lowers collision risks in denser higher shells—coordinated with regulators and other operators.

While no major collisions occurred in January, these stories underscore the urgent need for sustainable practices in an increasingly crowded orbit. 

Stay tuned for next month's updates!

Ad Astra!

Christopher Lee Jones

*Sources include ScienceDaily, SciTechDaily, World Economic Forum reports, Space.com, and JHU Hub.

Primary sources:

LEO on the Brink: Just Days from Potential Disaster (CRASH Clock study, ~2.8 days to catastrophic collision risk)

ScienceDaily article: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2026/01/260128075341.htm (January 28, 2026)

SciTechDaily coverage:https://scitechdaily.com/2-8-days-to-disaster-low-earth-orbit-could-collapse-without-warning (January 21, 2026)

Economic Wake-Up Call from World Economic Forum ($25.8–$42.3 billion projected costs over the next decade)

Full WEF report (PDF): https://reports.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Clear_Orbit_Secure_Future_2026.pdf (Published January 2026, announced ~January 26–28)

Main WEF publication page:https://www.weforum.org/publications/clear-orbit-secure-future-a-call-to-action-on-space-debris

Innovation News Network summary: https://www.innovationnewsnetwork.com/current-space-debris-issue-could-cost-industry-up-to-42bn-report-finds/66036 (January 29, 2026)

New Way to Track Falling Debris (seismometer/sonic boom method for reentering debris)

Johns Hopkins University Hub article:https://hub.jhu.edu/2026/01/22/tracking-falling-space-debris (January 22, 2026)

Related ScienceDaily coverage: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2026/01/260124003808.htm (January 24, 2026)

SpaceX Takes Action on Starlink Orbits (lowering ~4,400 satellites to ~480 km for safety and reduced debris risk)

Space.com article:https://www.space.com/space-exploration/satellites/spacex-lowering-orbits-of-4-400-starlink-satellites-for-safetys-sake (January 2, 2026)